Tuesday, 28 April 2020

What is Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust's Yield Now?


I have been avoiding MNACT. Hong Kong(HK) has changed. Riot are back when convid 19 just got better in HK. But today something strike me, thinking if the price has offer a bargain. Distributable Income dropped 48.2% for Q3, reduced to 12.5% with top up from borrowings, and to later pay back with money from insurance. DPU for Q3 is 1.671cents and if you prorated the advance dividend of 1.07cents for 2 month period, it will be 1.665cents for Q4.  What happened in Q4? I can only guess its due to convid 19.



Looking at 3 quarter results Y-on-Y is reduce by 0.8% after top up. Hence if the same thing happened every year, and if the insurance can be renewed every year, the impact is minimal. Current FY DPU would be likely 7.223cents, giving a 8.25% yield at a price of $0.875. If Q4 is affected due to convid 19, and continue to be so, expect a lower yield. Assuming 1.665 * 4 = 6.66cents or 7.61% yield.

Positive assumption:
- Riot strength not as strong as before convid 19 or less violent (for now)
- They seem to go to different Malls or places depend on their agenda, they cant be everywhere
- life goes on with citizens
- Hopeful Convid 19 will go away

Negative assumption:
- Repeat of what happened in November 
- Rental Reversion 
- University is just next door







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