Here is a simple calculation if this M&A is DPU accretive. NPI will increase 22.8%, to have a DPU neutral result after a rights or placement. The amount of shares should not increase more than 22.8%, hence not more than 227.66 million shares.
Gearing is 35.5% on 31 Dec 2018, assuming a max of 40% gearing, there a $136.53 debt headroom and the divestment of wuhu to be completed in 2H 2019. This mean $347.70 has to be funded through rights or placement. At $1.50 each, CRCT need to issue 231.8 million shares.
Let's face it, the price isn''t holding well, probably will drop even lower which mean it is not DPU accretive.
One year since looking for great companies, moving away from Reits and SG blue chips, things are not looking good thanks to the trade war. On the this journey, my preference for stock picking is evolving and adapting to what I have learnt, read and experienced. What I thought on day 1 might have changed due to the Marco environment or the change in preference.
As the trade war escalate, I decide to hold onto more cash and relook at my portfolio.
My concern with IGG is that with the trade war, if Apple lost it market share, the services that apps provide on IOS will lose its revenue. Services such as gaming will be affected more as the game saves may not be able to port to android. Even within android, the game saves has to be in the cloud. Losing the game saves, the gamer will lost the motivation to carry on the game, hence losing revenue. China market segment of IGG is about 28%, Apple Iphone Market share is about 15%. Another concern is 90% of revenue come from just one game. New games have been released. Let's see how the new games fare.
There is growth for live streaming and YY Inc is undervalued. Market share eroded as well as margin due to intense competition. Just like Grab/Uber. Broadcaster will move to whatever platform that benefit them. YY Inc still has the largest market share and profitable growing net income. 75% owned by founder, he has much skin in the game.
Companies that I had look into and divested.
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I had made about 19% profit in 2018 for holding for 5mnths since late 2017. Now that I am looking at it, thinking of jumping back in. BUT there is RED FLAG that did not
materialize in 2017.
Operating cash flow is negative for the last 3 years, 4 out of last 5
years. Debt/Equity ballooned to 220%, Finance cost/Interest is
50million. Segment wise, education is in red, construction is in red,
hospitality as glamour as it seem is in red but chuck out a tiny
cashflow after adding back non cash items.
Those invested please DYODD. Don't be stuck in another Hyflux. This one is
really bad! Better safe than sorry
