I have been avoiding MNACT. Hong Kong(HK) has changed. Riot are back when convid 19 just got better in HK. But today something strike me, thinking if the price has offer a bargain. Distributable Income dropped 48.2% for Q3, reduced to 12.5% with top up from borrowings, and to later pay back with money from insurance. DPU for Q3 is 1.671cents and if you prorated the advance dividend of 1.07cents for 2 month period, it will be 1.665cents for Q4. What happened in Q4? I can only guess its due to convid 19.
Looking at 3 quarter results Y-on-Y is reduce by 0.8% after top up. Hence if the same thing happened every year, and if the insurance can be renewed every year, the impact is minimal. Current FY DPU would be likely 7.223cents, giving a 8.25% yield at a price of $0.875. If Q4 is affected due to convid 19, and continue to be so, expect a lower yield. Assuming 1.665 * 4 = 6.66cents or 7.61% yield.
Positive assumption: - Riot strength not as strong as before convid 19 or less violent (for now) - They seem to go to different Malls or places depend on their agenda, they cant be everywhere - life goes on with citizens - Hopeful Convid 19 will go away Negative assumption: - Repeat of what happened in November - Rental Reversion - University is just next door
For more than a year, I have been thinking that DBS is expensive, the high PB ratio is holding me back. I started investment in late 2015 and in 2016 bought 100 shares of DBS at $13.64 and sold at $20.76. It is not possible to get this low price anymore unless there is a 50% crash. Price of DBS has been hovering between $24 and $26 for a year now.
If we compare the 3 banks, they have similar PE, Price/Cash Flow and ROE, so the price deviation between the banks should not be too much. I can say the banks are at fair value, yet DBS is trading 30% above valuation. From the table, it seem that OCBC and UOB has deviate from its historical PB ratio. The PB ratios, does this mean DBS need less assets than OCBC and UOB to generate the same PE? Of the 3 banks, DBS will have more room to fall compare to the other 2.
And so, the 3 banks are at fair value , however DBS will be more volatile with more rooms to fall during a correction. The above reason and a higher PB ratio had been holding me back to buy DBS. I decided to nibble today after another good result and an increase of dividend. Finger crossed CONVID-19 virus may bring it down to 0.8x PB?
I find that writing a year end result isn't so important, should take the time to research or rest instead, let the result show in 5 to 10 years. It has been 4+ years since I started the investing journey. So let's do a quick one. Value/Growth/Income Portfolio (SG/HK/US)
2015 - Started investing after my first book, first stock is keppel so yeah GG 2016 - Read more books. End of SCB no minimum fee. Started invest on REITs as well as in 17/18 2019 - Venture outside SGX and non Reits counters. Suffered 3 major losses but is worth the school fees to Mr Market. I am still at least on par with STI after these losses. Still a Noob being slapped by the wave in the open sea. Income Portfolio (SG/HK)
2018 - Bad call on Duty Free International. 2019 - Bought at market bottom in DEC 2018. The buy out of Ascendas Hospitality Trust and Accordia Golf Trust now in pending. Luck for the bottom picking and the 2 buyout which are both heavy in the portfolio
